12 Drivers, 10 Races, 1 Champion - MyPredictions (Part 1)

by 4ever3 on Sep 12, 2008 6:34 PM EDT Comment 1 comment

The Chase is on! This weekend marks the beginning of the 10 race ‘play-off’ for NASCAR’s Sprint Cup Series.

The playing field has been reset with the top 12 qualifying drivers all within 80 points of each other.

For the record, all 12 drivers have had their point totals reset to 5,000 plus 10 bonus points for each win this season. The driver standings are then reestablished using the number of second, third, fourth, and so on place finishes as tie-breakers.

Before I give you a breakdown on all the Chase drivers and where I think they will finish – I just got my crystal ball out of the repair shop – I just want to mention a few things about this year’s Chase.

It you look close at who is in the Chase and who isn’t you’ll notice that there is not one single Dodge driver in the Chase. The most notable of Dodge drivers absent from the "Terrific Twelve" is Kasey Kahne (9). Kahne won 2 races this year and came close to making it, but a few 40th place finishes this summer did him in.

Kahne is proof positive that to make it into the Chase, and perhaps even win it, you must do more than just win races, you have to be consistent and finish as strong as you can for each and every race. You don’t win the Championship by finishing 40th, you do it by running up front each and every race, keeping yourself in the top 10.

Now let us look at the top 12 contenders for this year’s Sprint Cup starting with the 12th place seed and working my way to number 1;

Matt Kenseth (17): Kenseth is a former Sprint Cup Champion and although he has not won the Cup since the Chase format was introduced he has not missed the Chase since its inception.

I’ll be honest, Kenseth’s performance has not been great for the past few years even though he has consistently made it into the Chase – he really misses his former Crew Chief Robby Reiser turned general manger for team owner Jack Roush. Although Reiser was present at the track last week to make sure Kenseth got into the Chase I don’t expect to see him at any other races this season – not in that capacity anyway.

Kenseth has completed 97% of the laps run this year, but he would have to drastically improve his 16.0 finishing spot to even contend for the Cup and unless something really changes between him and his team I don’t see Kenseth finishing any better than 11th in the final standings.

Kevin Harvick (29): Harvick was thrust into the spotlight 7 years ago when he was selected to be the driver to replace Dale Earnhardt who died in a crash while racing in the 2001 Daytona 500. A tough task for anyone, that’s for sure. Harvick and his car owner Richard Childress eventually fought through the turmoil of Earnhardt’s death and brought Richard Childress Racing (RCR) back to the glory that it once had – well almost anyway.

Sure Harvick can mix it up with the best of them, and he has really matured into a top notch driver, but the performance of his RCR cars seems to be just a wee bit off compared to the Hendrick, Gibbs, and Roush cars.

Harvick, like Kenseth, has finished nearly 97% of the laps he has run but he too will have to improve his average finish of 13.6 in order to contend for the Cup. Harvick’s relationship with Crew Chief Todd Berrier is certainly better than that of Kenseth’s and Bolin’s, and that just might be the catalyst for him to make a run for it in these last 10 races, but unless something significant happens to those Hendrick, Gibbs, and Roush cars I don’t see Harvick finishing any higher than 7th when everything is said and done.

Jeff Gordon (24): This 4-time Cup winner is struggling this year. I know, the man is in the Chase and has won nearly 4.2 million dollars this season, but compared to what he is used to this season has been a difficult one for him.

Gordon is still winless this season, and honestly he may still be winless when the season is over. His best chance for a win is at Talladega, but only if he finds a drafting partner that will stay with him to the bitter end. Good luck with that one.

Gordon’s Crew Chief, Steve Letarte, has been under a lot of scrutiny this season from both the fans, and at times from Gordon himself. They still don’t seem to have a good enough handle on the new Car of Tomorrow (CoT) yet.

With that being said, Gordon can still drive a car and the man knows how to win races and Championships and I would never count him out of it - never ever - but unless they get a hold of the CoT fast and improve his average finish from 15.1, don’t expect him to finish any higher then 8th when the dust settles on the Championship.

Greg Biffle (16): "The Biff" is another Jack Roush driver in the Chase this year and he can drive a car too. I like the way Biffle handles a race car, he reminds me of a younger Cale Yarborough (not the UFC guy – that is spelt differently).

Biffle has had a strong car this year and if it weren’t for some bad luck in the parts department he could have very easily won a few races and have been higher in the points.

Look for Biffle to run strong at the Intermediate tracks and if he doesn’t have anymore part failures he could finish as high as 3rd or 4th in the points, but realistically I see him finishing about 6th in the standings at the end of it.

Tony Stewart (20): Stewart is the only driver to win a Championship under the old point system and under the new Chase format. Stewart is a fiery competitor and he knows how to win – the man wins in everything he does, he knows nothing else.

With that being said, he still has not won this year and the pressure is mounting. After the race last weekend in Richmond Tony blew up over the radio to his crew because he finished second.

To add to the pressure and drama, Tony is leaving Joe Gibbs Racing (JGR) at the end of the season to start his own team and I know there is nothing that Tony wants more than to win the Championship one more time for JGR.

If it weren’t for some bad luck earlier this season Tony could very well have had 2 or 3 wins already this season and if the team and driver settle down over the next 10 races Tony just might give them all a run for their money.

I think Tony will do well in the Chase, but the tension and pressure on his team to win that last Championship will eventually become the Achilles heal for the Home Depot team and Tony will end up finishing his last season at JGR in 4th - the same position he finished in in his first year at JGR.

Jeff Burton (31): Burton is another Richard Childress Racing (RCR) driver and is a super nice guy. He is known to keep a low profile on the track and save his equipment until the end when it is needed the most and if anything that might be a saving grace when he is up against other, more aggressive, Chase contenders like Kyle Busch (18). Burton just might sit back and be ready for the kill when the other Chase contenders wreck each other by driving too hard.

Unfortunately, Burton’s car suffers from the same lack of performance as his teammate Kevin Harvick’s does and that will be the deciding factor in Burton’s Chase chances.

Even if the other contenders manage to crash each other out of a race or two, Jeff might not be able to make a huge point gain by winning the race because of a lack of performance to get his car to the front and keep it there. This is why I see Burton finishing in 9th at the end of it. Don’t get me wrong, I’d love to see the man win the Championship – he deserves to – but in this case nice guys really do finish last (or in 9th).

Stay tuned for the other guys tomorrow!

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