Hypothetical Question Game: Should Mark Martin Have Driven a Full-Schedule in 2007?
by MattWeaver on Jan 17, 2012 9:32 AM EST
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Kevin Harvick beats Mark Martin to the finish line by 0.020 seconds to win the 2007 Daytona 500 on Feb. 18, 2007. The finish is the closest in race history. (Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images for NASCAR)
It’s a slow news day in the motorsports world so let's play a game of hypotheticals for a moment: In 2007, Mark Martin signed a partial-schedule deal with MB2Racing and came just 0.020 of a second of winning the Daytona 500. He was beat to the line on that night by Kevin Harvick in the closest finish in race history.
He followed that up with two fifth-place finishes and a tenth at Fontana, Las Vegas and Atlanta, and was leading the standings at the end of week four. Martin was scheduled to give way to Regan Smith the following weekend and didn't return to the team until week seven at Forth Worth.
In the two weeks away from the car, Martin had fallen from the points lead to 11th, still in Chase contention and had even worked his way back to 10th by week eight at Phoenix.
So my question is two-fold.
Should Martin have stayed in the car and chased a championship after such a compelling start to the season? And could he have won the championship had he stayed in the #01 for a full season?
Some notes to consider:
Jeff Gordon had the best statistical year of his career in 2007, picking up six wins and 30 top-10s in 36 races.
Jimmie Johnson had the most-dominating Chase since the inception of the playoff format up to that point, winning four of the final five races of the Chase, averaging a 4.9 average finish over than span. Johnson also won 10 races overall in 2007, en route to his second-straight championship.
Coming full-circle, after three full seasons with Hendrick Motorsports, Martin has signed with Michael Waltrip Racing to run a partial schedule much like he did from 2007-08. If he finds himself in a similar position to 2007, leading the standings, will he make the same decision?
Discuss.
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To answer your question, absolutely. He could have. But would he have?
I’m not sure. The Chase is such a crap shoot.
Look no further than Tony Stewart last year. The tenth-best overall team won the championship because he got hot at just the right time.
Mark Martin was the best overall driver in the races he ran that year but Gordon and Johnson were too dominant during the Chase to really have made a difference. He might have determined which of the two won but that’s a deep reach.
A Gordon, Johnson, Martin battle would have been really fun to watch that year, however.
I really can't disagree with any of this.
I’ll just add that a Martin, Gordon, Johnson championship battle would have been the stuff of legend.
Especially in hindsight.
Johnson was the defending (one-time!) series champion, the young gun seemingly destined for greatness.
Gordon was the man. 2007 was his last of 15 straight years of winning at least one race a year. At 35 years old, he was in the prime of his career, still considered the top star of the business.
Martin was 47 years old and more than capable of running with the best of them at any track on the circuit. In winning equipment (MB2 was a Hendrick satellite site), Martin could be the best.
Oh what could have been.
Thus the post. Really bummmed that no one else has commented. Silly off-season.
Follow me on Twitter @MattWeaverSBN
Senior Writer and Editor for SBNation's NASCAR Ranting and Raving
Correspondent for SBNation's IndyCar Pop Off Valve Blog (http://www.popoffvalve.com/)
by MattWeaver on Jan 19, 2012 4:00 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
I was going to comment
But I really didn’t have anything constructive to say, so I didn’t. But I guess that’s what this post is too though haha. Oh well. Martin chose not to, so that’s that. Regan Smith is sure glad he didn’t. :)
by UnderdogFan89 on Jan 19, 2012 4:36 PM EST up reply actions
I can't say I really disagree with either of you.
I honestly thought that fter his great start they would have re-thought things and kept him in the car, but DEI did have a contract to put Almirola in the car when Martin wasn’t in it – I wonder what would have happened if DEI tried to keep Aric out of the car in orde to have Martin in it?
Founder and site manager of SBN's NASCAR Ranting & Raving (www.4ever3blog.com) - "Filling up your rearview and headed to the front."
2007 actually started with Regan Smith fillin in the 01
They took him out after 7 races to keep his rookie status for the next year in favor of Almirola, but Smith was the driver for races 5 and 6 that year when Martin was the points leader. Hence my previous comment lol :)
by UnderdogFan89 on Jan 20, 2012 2:14 AM EST up reply actions
Yeap, you're a little ahead of yourself here.
MB2 became purely Ginn Racing in the middle of 2007 and much later that season, merged with DEI.
Almirola wasn’t brought into the picture until he and Martin were driving the newly departed no. 8 car.
Ginn cleared space for Martin to run the full-schedule but he declined.
Follow me on Twitter @MattWeaverSBN
Senior Writer and Editor for SBNation's NASCAR Ranting and Raving
Correspondent for SBNation's IndyCar Pop Off Valve Blog (http://www.popoffvalve.com/)
yep. Ahead of myself
but I was correct in that dei did have a contract with someone else.
Founder and site manager of SBN's NASCAR Ranting & Raving (www.4ever3blog.com) - "Filling up your rearview and headed to the front."
by 4ever3 on Jan 22, 2012 10:34 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
Don't Forget
Mark Martin’s son Matt was moving up the ranks as part of Ford’s development program, and in 2007 joined the short-lived Ginn Racing development program. I believe it was Mark Martin’s intention to step back from the full schedule no matter how good or bad he performed, so that he could help advance his son’s career. In 2008, Matt ended his driving career and instead pursued his education. In 2009, Mark joined Hendrick Motorsports on a full time basis. During interviews I have seen in the past, Mark has mentioned that family has played a major role in the decisions he has made regarding his career. No one can predict what could have happened, but if Matt Martin kept moving up the ranks I really don’t think Mark Martin would be driving anymore at any level.
At the pace Gordon and Johnson were going at the end of the season, I think Martin would have been third at best. Heck, I’m still a little ticked that Gordon didn’t get something overall for the amazing stats he put up during the entire season. I still think there needs to be some kind of bonus or award for the “regular” season champion, but that goes into a whole other subject.
To answer the last question, Mark Martin always has seemed to stick to his plans once he announces them prior to the season. I’m confident he will make the same decision as 2007.
I'v always felt that the 'regular season champion' should be rewarded for his efforts.
In stick and ball sports, the RSC is typically the no. 1 seed. Perhaps the RSC should be awarded a win bonus – three points towards the start of the Chase.
Follow me on Twitter @MattWeaverSBN
Senior Writer and Editor for SBNation's NASCAR Ranting and Raving
Correspondent for SBNation's IndyCar Pop Off Valve Blog (http://www.popoffvalve.com/)
I've always envisioned something like this.
RSC gets a three point bonus for being in the lead come chase time. Then each spot is separated by three points, so the RSC has a six point lead over second, nine point lead over third, etc. Then you can have bonus point for wins if you so wish. This would kind of be a combination of the original chase format and the current one.
by UnderdogFan89 on Jan 21, 2012 3:52 PM EST up reply actions
I've always felt that once the Chase starts, all 12 teams should be reset to 2000. No re-seeding.
With the exception of Japanese baseball (I’m not kidding), you don’t see the playoffs start with one team down 1-0.
All things considered, I don’t dislike your format. It may be a little too complicated though, especially once you factor in race-win points. And after last season, I think the current system has earned another season.
Follow me on Twitter @MattWeaverSBN
Senior Writer and Editor for SBNation's NASCAR Ranting and Raving
Correspondent for SBNation's IndyCar Pop Off Valve Blog (http://www.popoffvalve.com/)
I certainly agree with your last statement, Matt
But the system I wrote about above was the system I envisioned when they first announced that race wins would be rewarded with bonus points in the Chase. I’m sorry, but winning a championship is about consistency. You could be 10th in points with 5 wins but only 9 top 10s in the first 26 races, and most likely be in the points lead after Richmond. Now most likely you won’t go on to somehow find the consistency to win the championship, but it does expose a small flaw in this Chase. I do like the idea of a playoff, but completely disregarding the “regular” season (besides wins) is ridiculous.
by UnderdogFan89 on Jan 21, 2012 6:03 PM EST up reply actions
yes I remember those interviews ...
and I think you are not far from the truth of th situation either. So her is another hypothetical question for you; If Martin had stayed in that car and competed for the championsip, perhaps even winning it or at least finishing third, how would have that changed the demize of dei as a racing organization or would have it still have happened regardless?
Founder and site manager of SBN's NASCAR Ranting & Raving (www.4ever3blog.com) - "Filling up your rearview and headed to the front."
by 4ever3 on Jan 22, 2012 10:39 AM EST via mobile up reply actions
That's a good question...
…that brings up more questions. If Martin was in the championship hunt, would Ginn still have merged the team mid-season? If the merge still occurred, would this have kept DEI as it was known at that time around for longer, thus requiring Ganassi to merge with another team and when the time came requiring DEI to merge with another team or dissolve completely? I suppose we’ll never know, but my assumption is that despite Mark Martin’s presence the instability of these teams as a whole through those years would have resulted in some sort of realignment regardless.
I agree with you on that
even Dale Jr said that DEI had fallen behind the technology curve after his dad died – if I remember correctly he said that dei was using equipment at his shop because it was better than the equipment at their shop. If that were the case then even a successfull run by Martin probably wouldn’t have helped the situation anyway.
Founder and site manager of SBN's NASCAR Ranting & Raving (www.4ever3blog.com) - "Filling up your rearview and headed to the front."
Oh boy, look what I started!
I’ve always felt that NASCAR and any form of auto racing is a completely different animal than stick and ball sports, so I have never completely understood why the powers that be have been comparing it to or trying to make the format similar to other sports.
Especially after 2011, the chase is here to stay. However, I was thinking more along the lines of a financial award/bonus or some sort of a prestigious trophy for being the regular season champion rather than additional points. Possibly have some sort of recognition that will appear in the record books as well. Make performing the best in the first 26 races something worth achieving.
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